As the Strait of Hormuz crisis continues to weigh on the global economy, how are emerging-market real economies coping? This article draws on exclusive data from Maestro, Lendable's proietary data platform. Built on more than 36 billion data points, the platform offers a unique view of ground-level economic activity in emerging markets that goes beyond headline figures.
The Strait of Hormuz has been disrupted for more than six months, and traffic conditions remain highly uncertain. The waterway closed on 28 February 2026 amid the escalation of the conflict involving the United States, Israel and Iran. The conflict has since continued with varying dynamics, and traffic is currently running at a fraction of pre-conflict levels. Brent has moved back above $100 a barrel, and the prospects for a durable settlement remain unclear.
The disruption is transmitting to the wider economy through energy supply chains and input costs. Around a fifth of global oil consumption and LNG trade transits Hormuz, with Asia accounting for roughly 84% of crude and a similar share of LNG. Remittances constitute a second channel: Gulf-based workers remit over $130bn annually, concentrated in Egypt, India, Pakistan, Bangladesh and the Philippines.
Although still early, emerging economies have proved more resilient than expected. The IMF’s July update trimmed its 2026 growth forecast for emerging and developing economies by 0.1 percentage points to 3.8%, noting that transmission through commodity prices, inflation expectations and financial conditions has so far been relatively limited. Strain is material in specific cases, particularly import-dependent economies such as the Philippines, but the broad-based economic damage a shock of this scale might have implied has not materialised.
Outcomes are also diverging by region. Asia presents a mixed picture. Vietnam’s 2026 growth forecast was revised upward, for example, while India and Malaysia appear largely unaffected in aggregate terms. The Philippines or Bangladesh, are under materially greater strain. In Latin America, exposure to the supply-chain channel is more limited, and net oil exporters such as Brazil and Colombia have benefited from higher crude prices.
Aggregate figures may nonetheless understate the pressure on individual businesses absorbing higher input costs. Maestro, Lendable’s proprietary data platform for monitoring lending performance in real time across up to 200 million loans in 28 countries, offers a complementary view. Drawing on 36 billion data points from over 150 integrated lenders, it is one of the largest sources of high-frequency, ground-level economic data on emerging markets. This article presents analysis from that dataset to add another dimension to assessing economic conditions across these markets.
What the data would be expected to show
To better understand the data, consider what happens to emerging-market lending when economic activity slows or confidence drops.
- New lending originations should fall broadly and significantly, tracking each country’s macro exposure.
- Lenders would reprice risk through interest rates. The standard response to higher expected default risk is to charge more.
- Credit quality would deteriorate, lifting delinquency fairly evenly across lenders, geographies and segments. This effect should be visible from day one at origination.
Although all three symptoms are present across the portfolio, especially in some facilities in Asia and in MSME credit, the distinctive signals of a generalised slowdown have not materialised. This is consistent with the overall direction of headline economic and growth data.
The analysis compared underwriting behaviour and credit repayment in the three months before the closure (December 2025 – February 2026) with the period that followed. The universe includes alternative lenders across consumer, MSME, embedded finance, and asset lending and leasing in Asia, Africa and Latin America.
What the data actually shows
1) Lending kept growing, albeit slightly and unevenly
Portfolio originations slowed, growing only 0.6% in the three months after the crisis began, and 36% of lenders originated fewer loans. But growth continued into the summer: June–August originations were 7.6% above the pre-war window. Overall, the data points to lending activity that has continued to grow despite the crisis.
However, the picture is mixed, and it becomes clearer at a more granular level. Regionally, the direction of travel is consistent with differing exposure to the shock. Originations grew 28.1% in Latin America and 12.9% in Africa in the three months after the crisis began, while Asia, by far the most oil-exposed of the three, contracted 6.5%.
Two qualifications apply. First, on a difference-in-differences basis, growth in Latin America and Africa decelerated relative to the equivalent period a year earlier, by 2.8 and 15.0 percentage points respectively. Second, the z-scores for Latin America, Africa, and Asia (+0.06, +0.22, and +0.03, respectively) sit well within each market’s normal month-to-month variation. The directional pattern is consistent with exposure, but the magnitude is not yet separable from noise.
Change: originations, Mar–May 2026 vs Dec 2025–Feb 2026. DiD: difference-in-differences vs the same months a year earlier. z: change relative to normal volatility. Source: Lendable Maestro.
The moderation in origination also appears, at least partially, supply-led rather than demand-led: lenders have tightened both volume and tenor, plausibly as a risk-management response, while borrower appetite for credit across these markets showed no comparable weakening.
2) Credit terms: the interest rate stayed flat as the term shortened
On credit terms, interest rates remained flat. The adjustment occurred through a reduction of tenor instead, as average loan duration declined. However, data warrant closer inspection. Only 33% is attributable to individual lenders shortening the terms they write; the remaining 67% is compositional. Meaning the average shortened primarily because the composition of active lenders changed, not because most lenders altered their underwriting in response to a riskier operating environment.
This pattern is consistent with the structure of the EM lending market. Interest rates already incorporate structural costs, overhead, collections, and the cost of insolvency risk. Because this cushion is embedded in the rate, lenders have limited room, and correspondingly limited need, to adjust price further when risk perception shifts. Therefore, where lenders do adjust for risk, the primary lever is typically the tightening of lending conditions, namely counterparty selection and tenor, rather than price.
As such, the change in composition in the current data indicates incremental caution among certain lenders, though not enough to translate into repricing at the rate level.
3) Credit stress is growing in select areas
PAR30, the share of the book more than thirty days late, rose slightly through May, but normalised the following month. A limited number of originators account for roughly two-fifths of the total delinquency increase.
On a complete panel of lenders reporting every month, PAR30 has been flat since May. That is still a mild positive against seasonality: the same months a year earlier saw a further 1.0 percentage point rise. Excluding the single largest delinquent book, the portfolio has already recovered roughly a third of its war-time rise. PAR30 remains 2.6 percentage points above its pre-war level as of August.
Repayment flow troughed in March and April and recovered through May; it has since held steady rather than closing the gap further, averaging around 86.2% from June to August, still 2.2 percentage points below pre-war. New loans are also performing better than the pre-shock baseline. This indicates the stress is concentrated in paper originated before the closure, whereas current originations remain clean.
For calibration: the deterioration in credit quality is relatively contained and far from what was experienced in previous crises; for example, COVID and Lendable loss rates remain well below those used in LTV Settings.
Energy exposure
With the situation fluid and oil prices sustained, exposure to energy risk is likely to become a more prominent theme going forward. Over the coming months, further price increases or additional supply disruption would place additional stress on a number of economies.
Over the past several months, a range of measures has been introduced to strengthen energy security, including strategic reserve management, fuel subsidies and excise relief, and diversifying supply toward alternative producers. Energy exposure is uneven in any case. The risk remains concentrated in a limited number of geographies, while most markets sit in an intermediate or comparatively protected position.
Source: Lendable analysis; national energy ministries, IEA, IMF and reports (September 2026).
A situation worth monitoring, as the outlook remains positive
Borrower-level data across Lendable’s portfolio is consistent with the headline numbers: asset quality has not deteriorated significantly, though the situation remains fluid, particularly in the more exposed markets. Lendable’s global mandate allows flexibility in allocation choices. In recent years, Latin America has been the firm’s most active growth area, and its deal pipeline reflects this conviction. Conversely, exposure to the most affected Asian economies remains limited. Lendable will continue to monitor conditions closely and refine its understanding of risk as the data develop.
Despite current uncertainty, Lendable believes the underlying opportunity in emerging-market credit remains intact. Economic projections continue to point to positive growth across its core markets this year and for the foreseeable future. By remaining dynamic in asset allocation and selective in its approach, Lendable believes it is well placed to continue capitalising on these opportunities and deliver positive returns to investors.